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Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Probability: Expected Value and Decision Analysis

Solution is available here for U$0.50

1- In a certain state lottery, a lottery ticket cost $8. In terms of the decision to purchase or not to purchase a lottery ticket, suppose that the following payoff table applies:

                                State of nature
Decision alternative           Wins s1        Lose s2
Purchase lottery ticket d1           290,000             -8
Do not purchase lottery ticket d2        0              0

1. A realistic estimate of the chances of winning are 1 in 290,000. Use the expected value  approach  to recommend a decision.


2. If a particular decision maker assigns an indifference probability  of 0,00004 to the $0 payoff, would this individual purchase a lottery ticket? Use the expected utility to justify your answer. 

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